In a position to start picking up the pieces
In every property cycle, there are the investors who can say that they exited before the market turned down.
Those who called the market slump correctly have also been the ones who have experienced at least one property crash in the past, and normally more than that. They have the scars to show from previous downturns, businesses that suffered or just scraped through, and they are not going to make the same mistakes.
In this report, a number of these UK industry veterans emerging with new cash give their views on the market based on many years of investing. Often backed by a contact book of wealthy overseas investors from the Middle East and North America, they are again positioned to pick up the pieces.
Grandees such as Sir John Ritblat and Sir Stuart Lipton are lining up to buy back into the market and begin planning for new commercial schemes, alongside experienced investors such as Helical’s Mike Slade, Leo Noé, now at F&C Reit, as well as the long-running partnership of Raymond Mould and Patrick Vaughan.
The octogenarian Jack Petchey, meanwhile, has been harder hit by the slump, but remains in good spirits with his personal fortune intact and an intention not to get left behind.
These property tycoons have all amassed fortunes, and do not need to be working as hard as they do.Yet, alongside other industry veterans such as Gerald Ronson and Nick Leslau, whose Max Property felt confident enough to float in the only UK IPO this year on the alternative investment market (Aim) in May, they are gearing up for when the darkest moments of the property downturn are past.
Some basic themes emerge when talking to these experts. Most are seeing opportunities across a range of sectors and property asset classes, but caution that the worst may not be over on a more general basis.
The market is having a slight bull run at the moment. Cash-rich investors are chasing prices higher – and hence yields lower – in some sectors, particularly where supply is limited. But the fundamental driver of property value – rental income – is still out of kilter, because it is too low.
The change in sentiment is based on a fairly narrow band of property, and overarching problems such as the impact of recession on tenants and the huge overhang of bank debt cannot be discounted.
Most say, however, that while we may not be at the bottom of the market, we are near enough to start preparing for it, and even selectively to begin buying. Size will be important, if only to purchase and operate the big portfolios expected to emerge as companies with large debts sell property to reduce their liabilities.
There is no hurry, however. The market veterans have been investing for decades, and have generally been caught out a few times along the way. This time, some managed to avoid the worst of the drop, but no one is entirely unscathed and no one called it exactly right. Of those buying now, some will make good money, but waiting for the signs of a definite recovery, rather than a bounce or rally for a certain type of property stock, is unlikely to harm anyone’s returns in the longer term.
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